Billy Blake’s Saturday Saratoga Late Pick 4

A tough beat last Saturday as Moreno wired the field in the Whitney to break up the ticket. I thought he would have been pressured more, but he got an uncontested lead and never looked back. Hopefully many of the horses come back to run in the Woodward at the end of the month. Here’s the play for this week:

Race 8: 1,2,4

The Late Pick Four starts with what I found to be a tricky non winners of one allowance, and the race centers around Point Roll (#1). He was an absolute no show last out as the favorite. Are you willing to forgive the effort, or was that a sign he’s lost a step? I’m going to give him another shot on Saturday. Note the runner up three back won going away earlier in the Saratoga meet. Analysis (#2) comes out of the same race as Point Roll and finished second at a big price. His last two races on the turf merit consideration. Archer Hill (#4) stretches out to one mile after three turf sprints at Belmont, and he’s the only horse in the field with a win at the Spa. It would also be nice to see Alex Solis get a win the day after his Hall of Fame induction. Last Run (#7) and Giant Jo (#10) are two that figure to be setting the pace, which should set things up for Point Roll, Analysis, or Archer Hill.

Race 9: 1,2,6,10

Twelve are entered in this turf sprint, one of which is a MTO. Richies Sweetheart (#1) set a track record at Arlington and possesses tons of speed from the rail. She attracts Castellano, who will be sending her from the bell. Kiss Me Lola (#2) is a consistent horse still looking for her first win of 2014. Even though she’s 1-for-10 in her career, she runs well every time and offers decent value at 4-1 morning line. Orient Harbor (#6) broke her maiden a couple of weeks ago and continues to improve for Shug McGaughey. She should get a brisk pace to close into, and she had an impressive kick in the final furlong on July 24th.Ballerina Belle (#10) is another one who likes to come from off the pace. She’s hit the board all eight times in her career. There are a handful of horses in the race who should show early speed, includingPrivately Speaking (#4), Runway Ready (#7), and Insolvent (#11). I prefer Richies Sweetheart of the speed, while the other three on the ticket are midpack runners and closers who have to find running room in a full field.

Race 10: 2,3

No Wise Dan in the Fourstardave, but it makes for a wide open race. It’s a competitive field of six, and I’m trying to get by without usingSilver Max (#1). No doubt he will be on the lead, but I also believeSayaad (#5) will put pressure on him early. I’m leaning on Seek Again (#2) and Jack Milton (#3), who both should be rating. Seek Again turns back to one mile after a third place finish in the Manhattan, and Jack Milton was beaten by arguably the top turf miler in the country, Obviously, in the Shoemaker Mile last out.

Race 11: 3,4,6,7,8

The Saturday card concludes with maidens going one mile and a sixteenth, and I spread out as much as I could. Coronette (#3) is second off the layoff, had a wide trip last time, and Luis Saez is back aboard.Forensic (#6) continues to pile up minor rewards, but she does have experience at Saratoga. The European import, Trophee (#7), makes her American debut for Christophe Clement.  She didn’t get it done two back as the favorite overseas. However, it’s tough to completely ignore her in this race. I’ll also throw in a couple of first time starters who offer better odds. Siren’s Assault (#4) was a $150,000 purchase, and she does have a six furlong work on the grass to her name. Prayed For (#8) has a five furlong turf work under her belt, and she’s an enticing price at 12-1 morning line.

50 cent Pick 4:  1,2,4/1,2,6,10/2,3/3,4,6,7,8   $60.

Image: Oliver Mallich, “Carousel Restaurant at Saratoga.” Copyright 2007.

Day Three: “Ils Sont Partis” — 3 Maiden Races from Evangeline Downs

Three maidens from Evangeline Downs are on tap for the third day of the dozen maiden races. At these lower purse levels, you’ll find far different fields — complete with many quick eliminations — from those at Saratoga and Del Mar. The story-lines require a bit of digging, but are just as compelling to the fan of the game.

Race 3: $12.5K Maiden Claiming, Purse: $15K, 8f, LA-bred, Older, Turf, 7:38 PM ET

At smaller tracks (and at all tracks, really), you should never toss a horse based on the morning line. Inside information often moves horses, and sometimes the line is quite off. It’s not unheard of to see several 15/1 or greater lines reduced to 5/2 throughout a card.  This is a fun level, too — and one that we see again in “split” in Race 7.  You’re essentially asking inexpensive horses to do something that they are likely not bred for — turf and distance.  It creates some variability that often leads to value.

The only horse with proven speed on the turf is Dance War (#2, 6-1). The rest are all question-marks and are trying the turf for the first time. It’s quite possible that one of them will take to the turf —  Uncle Carl (#3, 8-1) has some pedigree reasons to do so — although that often is built into the public’s price.  So the key question to this race is:

What is likelihood that the other runner’s in the race will not take to the turf and also that Dance War will run his race after a dull effort last time?

Selection: I’ll take my chances with Dance War, with these connections, at 9-2 or above.

Race 5: $7.5K Maiden Claiming, Purse: $8K, 7f, Older, 8:32 PM ET

By far, one of the most interesting stats I’ve seen recently came out of this race. Red Delta (#5, 8-1) is out of A.P. Delta who only wins with an impossibly low 1% of his first-time-starters.This is still a shockingly low percentage Granted, Red Delta is a five-year old, so this may, in theory, apply a bit less. That said, the only winner on debut for A.P. Delta went off at 8/5 odds. Thunder Bill (#7, 2-1) is 0 for 25.  Mouton goes with apprentice Odilon Martinez and hopes to finally find the winner’s circle today.  He might, but these horses tend to be bad bets. I much prefer Mr. Rossini (#10,5-1) on the outside. It’s only his seventh career start as well. He’ll go out for the lead and likely is rounding back into form. Tee Top Cat (#12, 30-1) is not that much worse than these and might be worth a flyer.

Selection:  It’s Mr. Rossini at 3-1 or greater.

Race 7: $12.5K Maiden Claiming, Purse: $15K, 8f, LA-bred, Older, Turf, 9:27 PM ET

See Race 5 for analysis of this level. There’s a bit more proven turf speed in this maiden, but Throwsomelimeonit (#6, 2-1) has been a new horse since taking to the turf.  The most speed on paper puts him on top. Fitz Perfectly (#9, 7/2) is interesting and could very well steal this on the front end, if he takes to the turf.

Selection:  I’ll take Throwsomelimeonit. There’s always risk after two big efforts, but both of those were against fields in which he was an outsider (at least according to the odds). He figures well in this group, and he’s a solid play down to a legitimate favorite’s bottom level price of 8/5.

Image:  Jason Howell, “Evangeline Downs.” Copyright 2009.

 

Day Two: Arlington Park’s 7th Race

Today, it’s the fourth of twelve maiden races I’m covering this week.  You can see the full schedule here:

Arlington Park, Race 7, $25K Maiden Claiming, Purse: $15.5K, 8f, Older, Turf.

4:54 P.M. ET

The Field:

Prince Warrior (#1, 7/2) enters the Conor Murphy barn after making up some ground against straight maidens at Tampa and Gulfstream. The company should be easier today — although neither of these, especially Gulfstream in the summer, is top level. Kilted (#2, 9/2) was outrun early at 5f last time out, but stretches out today for the first time on the turf. At a decent price, this is a bit of potentially positive uncertainty.  He’ll need to improve significantly, but there’s reason to believe that he can. Risk and Return (#3, 5/2) has the highest turf speed so far. But the connections aren’t inspiring, and I tend not to like any offspring of  Kitten’s Joy that isn’t campaigned by the Ramseys. They tend to be overbet by the public.  Gata Yat (#5, 6-1) is making a consecutive start for the first time in almost 2 years.  Still seems a race away, but worth a look.  My Man Mumbles (#6, 15-1) has some terrible workouts. Maragon (#8, 4-1) and Freedom Peace Love (#4, 6-1) would need slow races by everyone else to have a shot. Typically, those are bad bets.

Selection: I’ll take the upside with Kilted at 4/1 or better. Prince Warrior is the major threat.

Image: Jason Ernst, “Breakaway.” Copyright 2007.

Billy Blake’s Saturday Saratoga Late Pick 4

[Billy Blake is back with his weekly Saratoga Late Pick 4. Great sequence. For those wanting to spend a little less, I’ve added my singles after each of Billy’s plays. Good luck! SA]

We cashed in last week with a chalky sequence, but I’ll never complain about a winning ticket. Two of the horses we were live to in the finale last Saturday were paying over $400 for the Pick Four, but we got three times our money back for a $60 ticket.

The Whitney Day Late Pick Four includes a guaranteed pool of $750,000 with three Grade I races in the mix. It’s a tougher sequence than seven days ago, and there’s a chance of rain on Saturday. Here’s the play:

Billy’s Analysis for Race 8: 1,4,8

The Vanderbilt begins the Grade I action on Saturday, and there is tons of speed signed on in here.  Happy My Way (#5) looks like the speed of the speed on paper and Joe Bravo should be sending him. He’s posted three digit Beyers in his last five starts, but this field won’t be easy to fend off. The top two from the True North, Palace (#1) and Bakken (#8), are the ones I prefer most in the Vanderbilt. Bakken is a lightly raced horse from the Chad Brown barn and is second off the layoff. Palace shows up every single time he runs, and he was beaten by one of the top sprinters in the country last out who set a track record at Belmont. In addition, Bahamian Squall (#4) comes into the Vanderbilt second off a layoff and ran second in the 2013 edition of this race at Saratoga. He reunites with Luis Saez and is 8-1 on the morning line.

Seth’s single:  I love Bakken (#8) here. He’s just a bit faster than these and had excuses with a wicked pace in the True North.

Billy’s Analysis for Race 9: 2,7,9

The Test is a super competitive race with eleven horses set to go. Early reports are Princess Violet will scratch, so each horse will slide down a stall in the starting gate. Fiftyshadesofgold (#2) breaks from the rail, but I think she will appreciate the turn back to seven furlongs after a fourth place finish in the one mile Acorn. Four consecutive bullet workouts going into the Test suggest trainer Bret Calhoun has her ready to roll. It’s impossible to talk about the Test without bringing up Sweet Reason (#7). She showed in the Acorn that she’s a different animal going around one turn. I’m not expecting 3-1 on her by post time, but she’s the one to beat and a favorite I’m not leaving off the ticket. One horse that intrigues me is Tea Time (#9). She’s won her last two and put up a 94 Beyer last out at Delaware. The Test is a jump in class, but the price will be right. I could easily use a few more horses, but I’m trying to get through with these three to go a little deeper in the last two legs.

Seth’s single:  I want a classy sprinter in this race. That’s what the “test” is. Southern Honey #5 fits the bill perfectly.

Billy’s Analysis for Race 10: 1,5,6,7

Now the richest race at Saratoga, the Whitney starts and ends withPalace Malice (#5). You can’t say enough about his performance in the Met Mile, and now he gets back to an ideal distance of one mile and an eighth. He’s put his issues at the gate to rest as a four-year-old as he attempts to go 5-for-5 in 2014. While he’s clearly the pick, I’d be cautious about singling him in multi race wagers. Will Take Charge (#1) gets back to the track where he made a name for himself as a three-year-old. Luis Saez gets the mount back, and those two together haven’t been worse than second. I know trainer D Wayne Lukas isn’t crazy about the inside post, but Will Take Charge belongs in the ‘A’ group when discussing the Whitney. Departing (#6) finished third in the Stephen Foster, but he relishes the mile and an eighth. He’s got three wins to his name in six career starts at the distance. Of the few horses making their Saratoga debut in the Whitney, he’s the one I want the most. I’m not going to pull the plug on Romansh (#7) just yet. He ran well in the Met Mile, but couldn’t get it done as the favorite in the Suburban. If the real Romansh shows up, he’s got as good a shot as the rest of them. The upside in the Whitney is he will offer value.

Seth’s single: Yes, Palace Malice is the top horse in training, but my eyes popped when I saw Itsmyluckyday (#4) at 12-1 here. The 2013 Preakness runner-up returns to Grade I company after racing well at Monmouth park. At his best, he can run with anyone in the country.

Billy’s Analysis for Race 11: 4,5,6,8,12

Saturday’s finale is tricky to handicap because we don’t know what the weather conditions will be like. However, I’m assuming the race is on the turf. Big Blue Kitten (#4) hasn’t run since the Breeders’ Cup, but he’s 2-for-2 at Saratoga. I think he’s vulnerable off a layoff. However, he loves it at the Spa. Legendary (#5) comes out of a win in an optional claimer and turns back to one mile and one sixteenth. Worth noting that the win was over a yielding turf course, which enhances his chances if the turf isn’t firm by post time. Plainview (#6) should be on the lead and like Big Blue Kitten, is undefeated at Saratoga. Villandry (#8) has been wide in his last two starts and the added sixteenth will help his cause. Lastly, Kharafa (#12) is too consistent to not use. Outside post is a setback, but he’s in the good hands of Javier Castellano.

Seth’s Single: Toughest race of the sequence with class all over the place. Tempted by Plainview, but Big Blue Kitten (#4) is just better than these. The distance isn’t right, but this horse loves to win and may even give slight value.

$.50 wager (3 X 3 X 4 X 5) = $90

Late changes:

Billy:  “I’m now using #5 Happy My Way in Vanderbilt and #2 Swift Warrior in the finale.”

Seth: “With Bakken scratched, it’s a tougher single. But I’ll go with Bahamian Squall shipping  in from Gulfstream Park. Good chance, and may be 6-1.”

Image: Bob is traveling. “Walking the horse from the Track.” Copyright 2010.

Rich Halvey’s “The Condition Sign”

[Rich Halvey (@rich_halvey) has been around this game for a long-time — over forty years. This experience really comes through in his writing about racing. Definitely check out his blog halveyonhorseracing.com for consistent sharp insight. Long before the era of blogs, he authored “The Condition Sign,” one of the few books written about form and, specifically, “how to identify a unique and uncommon longshot form cycle.” Indeed, form can be notoriously difficult to discern on paper, but often offers tremendous value on horses. He discusses the main arguments of the book here. Enjoy! SA.]

The Condition Sign (now sadly out of print) identified horses that show sudden, dramatic, and positive changes in running style sufficient to conclude they are ready to run their best race. Why it happens – maybe the horse fully recovered from a slight injury, maybe a change in feed or medication, maybe he finally got his horseshoes fitting properly – is not as important as accurately recognizing the pattern.

Here is an abbreviated version of The Condition Sign.

  • All horses go through form cycles. Cheaper horses will gain and lose their form very quickly while classier animals will retain their form for longer periods. So, for the most part we are looking forcondition sign horses in cheaper claiming and maiden events where it is easier to spot improving and declining form cycles.
  • The condition sign play is strongest when combined with other factors, including requiring horses to come back within 30 days of their qualifying effort and having the horse return at its best distance (or within a half furlong of it). Because cheap horses do not hold their form as long, recency is critical. In fact, a relatively quick return for these horses is a positive signal.
  • A condition sign horse can be excused for one race after running the qualifying race if it is entered at the wrong surface, wrong distance, wrong class, or wrong track condition. This is known as deferred condition.
  • The condition sign is most applicable to early speed types. Speed horses almost always show early foot, but the less in condition they are the sooner they back up, and vice versa – the closer they are to peak form, the longer they hold their speed. This is not to say you can’t have a closing condition sign horse. The same concept holds true – a horse that suddenly closes after not being able to pass anything may also be exhibiting the condition sign.
  • Look for horses that have had success beating horses of equal or greater value in the past. Exercise caution though when looking at class droppers. Horses dropping from a slightly higher class to a more appropriate one may still be backed. But just as the double class jump is a positive move, the double class drop with a horse that seems ready to win is more likely a red flag. The most reliable plays are horses returning at the same class as their condition race.
  • While the finish time is always an important factor, with condition sign horses fast intermediate times are far more important. When betting a speed horse, you need to feel confident it can run a fast fraction and not fold in the stretch. Horses that show early speed in slow fractions in poor fields may not be the condition sign horses we are looking for. Look for horses with superior interior speed.
  • The best races are always going to be where you have an improving condition sign horse being underbet against animals that are either deteriorating or unlikely to improve.

Let’s look at the 6th race at Belmont Park on June 10, 2011. The race was a six furlong affair on the inner turf for state bred maidens. The field, to say the least, was poor. In a nine horse field there were two first-time starters, one horse with five starts and no other horse with less than 10 starts. The crowd volleyed favoritism between the number three, Lucy Stragmore by virtue of having finished third twice and fourth three times in her five starts, the last of which was in a seven furlong race on the yielding turf, and the six horse, Juliann’s Approval, a 14-start maiden that finished second last out in that same seven furlong turf event.

Why it happens . . . is not as important as accurately recognizing the pattern.

Also coming out of that race was the seven, Persky’s Heart. While I have often opined that any maiden with more than 10 starts is a risky proposition, the one exception to that guideline is a maiden that reverses bad form because of some obvious change – a move to a lesser circuit, change in surface, change in distance or change in running style. In her opening six starts on the inner dirt at Aqueduct, Persky’s Heart never finished closer than 12½ lengths. The trainer then put her on the Belmont turf and she showed something she hadn’t showed before – speed and interest in running. This is the sort of dramatic change we are looking for, and it appeared to be a result of moving to the turf. The race on April 30 was obviously not her best distance, but for six furlongs she held the lead in a respectable time for state-bred maidens. Two weeks later she was back on the turf at six furlongs and ran a perfect condition race – early speed and heart in the stretch. She returned eight days later and although the distance was a furlong more and the track yielding (she had previously shown a distaste for the moist going), she was deserving of a condition sign play. The combination of negative factors kept her out of the money (at 44-1) but still made her a prime bet as a deferredcondition sign IF she returned quickly and at the right distance. Look at that race on May 22 closely. She broke on top from the 11 post, held her speed to the six furlong marker, and only lost two lengths in the stretch. Surely this horse was primed for her best effort next out. Sure enough, 19 days later she appeared in the aforementioned state-bred maiden, going off at a juicy 26-1 (the lowest odds of her career) and returning $55.50 to win, triggering an $839 exacta with one of the first time starters, and heading a $5,562 trifecta. You don’t need many of these races every year to stay healthy.

Let’s look at the condition sign angles applicable to the June 10 race:

  • The race for was cheap state-bred maidens, horses that cycle in and out of form.
  • Persky’s Heart had a sudden, dramatic form reversal.
  • Returned in 19 days.
  • Was racing at her best distance, six furlongs.
  • Was totally deferred condition.
  • Was an early speed type in turf sprints.
  • Whereas on the dirt she was faint-hearted, she held her speed well in the stretch in the turf sprints.
  • Was in the exact right class.
  • Had excellent interior times for the class.
  • Was underbet against clearly overbet favorites that were unlikely to improve.

Image: Keith Allison, “Laurel MD Horse Racing.” Copyright 2007.

Guest Analysis: Billy Blake’s Saturday Late Pick 4

[Here’s Billy’s ticket and analysis for Saturday’s Late Pick 4.

I also asked him, “If you absolutely had to single one horse in one race — and not Tonalist in the Jim Dandy, who would it be?” His answer: “Coup de Grace.”  

Good luck to all playing the spa today! SA]

Tough start to last week’s Pick Four as Devilish Love, a horse I respected but played against, won in a photo finish to kill the ticket after the first leg.

Weather should be a non-factor again, and the two turf races in the sequence should be run over a firm turf course.

Race 8: 4,5,8

The Grade II Amsterdam kickstarts the Late Pick Four, and there are reports of two scratches. Noble Moon and morning line favorite Rock Fall appear to be out of the race, leaving us with a field of seven. Coup de Grace was overmatched two back in the Woody Stephens and found the winner’s circle against weaker company at Delaware earlier in July. He’s now the probable post time favorite. Tiznowforamerica is 10-1 in the morning line, coming off a win at the Amsterdam distance of six and a half furlongs. Captain Serious is the speed in the race and turns back in the Amsterdam. Expect him to try to wire the field.

Race 9: 2,3,6,8

I’ll go four deep in this optional claimer. Palace Dreams is coming off a layoff, but she’s run well in her two races at Saratoga. She should be able to save ground from the inside with Jose Lezcano. Miz Owellcouldn’t hang on going one mile on a yielding turf course at Belmont, although she won three back with the extra sixteenth of a mile and another yielding course. You can make a case she’s better without a firm course, but she’s 2-for-5 this year and didn’t get the best of rides in the Mount Vernon. Lady’s Lunar Luck gets back to a more suitable distance after running out of gas going one mile and an eighth. Has hit the board in all four starts at the Spa (2-1-1). The Lady Says Yes makes a second start off the layoff and is another one in the field who likes the Saratoga turf. Just to mention a couple I won’t be using, Caribbean Beat is a nice horse, just doesn’t seem to win. Chow Fun may be compromised by the extreme outside post.

Race 10: 4,7

I’m chalking it out in the Jim Dandy with Tonalist and Wicked Strong.The Belmont Stakes winner will probably be stalking Legend, who appears to be the pace on paper. The blinkers on Wicked Strong should only help. Of the others in the field, I like Commanding Curve, but don’t think the pace will be hot enough for him to be kicking late. Same can be said for Kid Cruz. Tonalist and Wicked Strong are the class of the field. The value won’t be there, but they are the obvious choices in a small field.

Race 11: 2,6,7,11,12

A huge field completes the card. Twelve horses are entered, only one of which is a MTO.  There are a few horses that I’ll use coming out of a June 25th race at Belmont. Elroi is putting up consistent figures and continues to finish in the money. Note the winner of the race two back ran a respectable fourth on Thursday. Trainingforsuccess ran third on June 25th and offers a bit of value at 10-1 morning line. First start in the Mitchell Friedman barn and gets a rider change to Junior Alvarado.Bluegrass Flash is another one who is in contention each time he steps on the track. Joel Rosario sticks around and enters this race with experience on turf for Christophe Clement. Ballybrit couldn’t wire the field for one mile and a quarter. However, cutting back to one mile and a sixteenth improves his chances of wiring the field as one of the few speeds on paper. I can’t ignore Tapitation either. No worse than second in five career starts. Poliziotto hasn’t run in over a year, and I can’t endorse him at what will likely be short odds with a 12-month layoff.

$.50 wager (3 X 4 X 2 X 5) = $60

Image: Oliver Mallich, “The Paddock at Saratoga.” Copyright 2007. Creative Commons 2.0.

Featured article: Using Trainer/Jockey Combinations to Find Value

[I asked Chicago-racing expert Nicolle Neulist to write an article on one of her favorite handicapping angles. She took it a step further — analyzing a familiar angle with an eye towards value. It’s a great read. You can read more by Nicolle at her blog, blinkers-off.com and on twitter @rogueclown. Thanks, Nicolle!]

After following a particular circuit long enough, strong trainer/jockey combinations present themselves. Trainers often give their best mounts to a jockey with whom they have a good rapport, and who they trust to ride the horse exactly the way they ought to be ridden. However, a strong trainer/jockey combination is not a magic panacea, nor a substitute for rigorous handicapping. Instead, it is a factor to consider, and a reason to delve deeper into whether a particular horse might be an overlay or an underlay.

Using trainer/jockey combinations to identify overlays

Sometimes, knowing a trainer/jockey pair can be the key to finding a value play. A perfect example of this is Flower Spell in the Chicago Handicap, (GIII) June 28, 2014 at Arlington Park. The race is a seven-furlong affair for fillies and mares ages three and up. Looking at her past performance lines alone, Flower Spell looked like a marginal candidate. She had seen significant success in five and six furlong sprints in the area, including an overnight stakes win last year at six furlongs over the Arlington poly. Her only graded stakes attempt had been in last year’s Chicago Handicap, in which she bolted to the early lead but faltered in the final furlong. Since then she had shown a valuable ability to rate, but had not again ventured past six furlongs. The only other time she had even tried longer than six furlongs was a flat effort at a mile while she was still a maiden.

A strong trainer/jockey combination is not a magic panacea, nor a substitute for rigorous handicapping.

Her trainer and her jockey made her appealing in her second Chicago Handicap attempt, despite the potentially precarious stretch-out. Flower Spell is trained by Ingrid Mason, who has been sitting at second in the Arlington trainer standings for much of the meet. Out of Flower Spell’s six wins going into that race, four of them had been with Homeister aboard, and she had never finished worse than second in seven starts with Homeister. Their filly was in peak physical condition for an allowance win two weeks before, and looked equally sharp on Chicago Handicap day. Beyond their work with this one horse, Mason and Homeister had been generally strong as a unit. Entering the race they had won fourteen of their last thirty-one starts together, and been in the money with twenty-four of them. Their strength combined with Flower Spell’s improving recent form made her worth considering for a price. Anything below 5/1 would have been questionable at best given the questions on distance, but bettors were far more interested in Disco Barbie, Cozze Up Lady, Eden Prairie, and My Option. Flower Spell went off as the 8/1 fifth choice. This made her playable as a win bet, and a must-use in exotics.

Those who had faith in what Mason and Homeister could do with Flower Spell were rewarded. The field ceded the lone early speed to Flower Spell, and she set far more reasonable fractions than last year. Down the stretch she held off everyone… but My Option. She paid $8.00 to place, and the $2 exacta with Flower Spell below paid $104.00. Given the distance and her limited graded stakes experience, it would have been difficult to identify Flower Spell as a legitimate candidate if not for the trainer and jockey.

Using trainer/jockey combinations to identify underlays

It was also probably better than his backers would have gotten if Drama Coach hadn’t had an “I’m a Mason/Homeister on a win streak! Bet me!” sign hanging over his head.

Other times, a horse with an extremely strong trainer/jockey combination may end up being a significant underlay. This can be somewhat harder to identify, since often horses with top trainer/jockey combinations are well spotted: after all, they don’t rise to the top for naught. However, identifying vulnerable horses with a top trainer/jockey combination can lead you away from chalk and toward more valuable options. For an example, consider Drama Coach in the third race at Arlington on June 13. This race was a five and a half furlong turf dash, at the $50,000 beaten claiming level. Drama Coach is trained by Ingrid Mason and ridden by Rosemary Homeister, Jr: the same rock-solid trainer/jockey combination behind Flower Spell. Entering into that race, the combination was strong enough to merit particular consideration on the trainer/jockey factor: they had won 11 of 27 races in the previous 60 days, and been in the money 20 of those times, for a +1.31 ROI. Drama Coach won his last race by ten lengths, firing a 94 Brisnet speed in that win. That was a higher figure than any other horse in the field had mustered in their entire career. With such a hot trainer and jockey behind him, Drama Coach sounded live. The public bet him down accordingly, sending him off at even money.

This was an example when doing further analysis on the horse himself revealed that even money was a terrible bet to take. His last win may have looked impressive, but it was against easier company: $25,000 beaten. It was also on the all-weather, not the turf. That gaudy speed figure was such a jump from her recent previous form that he was a serious bounce risk. The last time he had set a career high, he regressed by nine points. Assuming a bounce in that range again, it wouldn’t put Drama Coach out of the running, but wouldn’t make him a standout either. The surface was another question. Drama Coach’s three wins had all come on other surfaces. He had tried turf dashes four times, all at similar distances, and never mustered better than third. Finally, a plum pace setup was unlikely. Drama Coach liked to be on or near the early lead, but so did J. Z.’s Crafty Boy, Mongol Bull, Malachite, and even Heart Doctor. For a six-horse field, that suggested there would be at least some fight for the lead. None of this is to say that it was a bad idea to try Drama Coach here: he had won his last two with Homeister aboard, and Mason had every reason to try him against something tougher than $25,000 company. As much as Drama Coach had going for him, though, he had enough going against him that even money required the savvy bettor to look elsewhere.

Conclusion: Finding value

As it happened, it was a speed horse that took the race. However, it was Mongol Bull, one of the 5/1 shots. That price was fair, if not an overlay. He had finished second by just a head at a turf sprint at this level last out. In three turf sprint runs, he had won once and finished second twice — never finishing more than half a length back. His one win in a turf dash had been on yielding turf, and the course was again yielding that day. He was no sure thing to win with all of the early speed in the race, in addition to the fact that trainer Bradlee Rainwater had not yet won in nine starts that Arlington meet. However, based on his class level and his proven ability to sprint on yielding turf, 5/1 was a great price. It was also probably better than his backers would have gotten if Drama Coach hadn’t had an “I’m a Mason/Homeister on a win streak! Bet me!” sign hanging over his head.

In short, it pays to pay attention to trainer/jockey combinations, and to continue analysis of a race after identifying a horse with an interesting one. Even the strongest pair does not make a horse automatically worth betting. However, they mean a horse merits further thought. Sometimes strong combinations can indicate an overlay. Other times, they can make a different horse an overlay by making their horse an underlay. Both situations create value for anyone willing to look.

Image: David Ohmer, “Lexington Kentucky – Keeneland Jockey “Eddie Martin Jr. – Strategizing.” Creative Commons 2.0 license. Copyright 2007.

Delaware Park, Race 6, Coverage begins 3:15 ET

Race of the Day, June 23

Delaware Park, Race 6, Maiden Claiming $30K, 1 mile 70 yds, Fillies and Mares, 3 and up, Purse: $24K

It’s tough to overgeneralize about the bias of particular courses.  Data metrics — at least the publicly available ones — tend to be incomplete and flawed.  But memories can be even more selective.  Yes, the plural of anecdote is not data.  That said, Delaware’s turf course — particularly at the lower levels — tends to produce less dramatic turf closes than you would see at say, Belmont.   But this doesn’t mean that they are chalky.  In the most recent twenty-five races around the distance, only 52% of the winners have been 5/1 or less (according to Brisnet).  A whopping 24% have been 10/1 or more.  Can we make our day — and start the week off right — with a long odds winner in this race?  Let’s look at the contenders:

  • Sam’s Melody (#1, 6-1) is fast enough to get it done here, and this is a truly terrible morning line.   5-2 seems fair for the Dale Capuano trainee, simply on the previous speed figure alone.  It’s quite possible, given the others, that you might get more.
  • Stalled (#3, 10-1) goes for Mid-Atlantic turf guru Jonathan Shepard. Not a terrible amount of turf breeding on the surface, but I trust Shepard’s eye.  Still, this is not the place for a “normal” first-time starter, as there are several solid other contenders here.
  • Northern Smile (#6, 12-1) is another surprisingly terrible morning line.  Plenty fast in her debut after lagging at the start, a better start could have her involved and improved.  Her trainer doesn’t usually have them ready first-time (or second-time), but she certainly should figure at the end.
  • It tough to get a read on Lionhearted Lady  (#7, 5-1) who couldn’t keep pace at a 5f turf sprint last time.  The stretch-out should help, but she’d really need to improve to find the winner’s circle.
  • Balansense (#10, 9/2) continues to drop down the maiden ranks after a terrible effort off-turf last time out.  There’s a fast enough speed rating in the PP’s, but she’d have to capture some old form.  She’ll probably be overbet, and I wouldn’t play her less than 8-1.
  • Gwent (#11, 7/2) is a Graham Motion-trainee trying turf for the first time.  She’s 0 for 3, with 3 so-so performances on the dirt as a heavy favorite.  Terrible workouts, and you have to wonder why she only now goes to the grass.  Another who may win, but will be overbet.

What I’m thinking of playing

Prior to the race, it looks like we’ll see some value opportunities here.  I expect the public to overbet Gwent, Lionhearted Lady, and even Balansense, which should create some value for Sam’s Melody and Northern Smile.  A split win bet — something that is a relatively profitable angle when you can get past the top two favorites — might be in order.   I’ll also take a deep look — and you should too — at the Pick 5 and the doubles starting and ending with this race.  Note that the 8th race at Delaware is for Arabians, if you play a Pick 3 into the last.

Live coverage at 3:15 ET on Twitter @alldayracing.  See you then!

  

Belmont Park, Race 5, Coverage on Twitter at 3:10 P.M. ET

Race of the Day, June 19

Belmont Park, 5th race, 1 Mile, Inner Turf, Maiden Claiming $40K, 3 and up, Purse $41K.

Today, it’s back to N.Y. for the first time since the Belmont Stakes. Great racing there everyday.  Plus, it’s another installment in Maiden Claiming week!  I love Maiden Claimers. Tons of risky favorites and lots of horses that need miracles to win.  It can set up for great value in mid-odds. 

Here’s what you need to know about the fifth from Belmont:

5 facts:

  1. Corinthian Summer (#8, 2-1) continues his drop through the maiden claiming ranks.  Did make up some nice ground in the middle of last race, but should be overbet because of connections.
  2. Azorian (#1A, 10-1) stays in the race as, perhaps, the most important pace factor.  Easy fractions could see an improvement to the Winner’s Circle, but demand at least 6-1.
  3. Dividend (#7, 3-1) adds blinkers in a curious move for a horse that made up almost 21 lengths in a previous start.  Ian Wilkes struggles with this angle, but Dividend’s last workout — presumably with blinkers — has to be encouraging.  I wouldn’t go much past 6-1 with him.
  4. Plated (#6, 5-1)  cuts back from 2 1/8 miles in his last start.  Not something you see everyday — perhaps underneath and late.
  5. Hooping (#4, 6-1) would need more today, but certainly has a shot.  His experience in lower-leveling claiming at Gulfstream Park ($16K) will likely keep the price relatively fair.

The Key Questions:

  • How heavy a favorite is Corinthian Summer?  The lower the price, the better for value elsewhere.  Public overbet!
  • Does Azorian improve with an easier pace?  It’s a tough angle to nail, but one that can pay well in the right circumstances with value odds.
  • How does Dividend react to the blinkers?   Wilkes struggles with this angle.
  • Does Hooping do enough to win?  Sometimes the winner doesn’t have angles, but just enough speed when others don’t fire.

What I’m thinking of playing:

I’ll likely take a stands against both Corinthian Summer and Dividend. Azorian should be be the play, but only at  6-1 or better. Good luck!

Tune in at @alldayracing on Twitter for coverage starting at 3:10 P.M. ET. See you then!

All Day Racing Calendar for June 11 – June 13

Here’s the “Race of the Day” Calendar for the remainder of this week:

Wednesday, June 11:  Presque Isle Downs, Race 1, 5:20 P.M. ET, Maiden, 1 mile, 3 yr. old, Fillies, Purse: $35K.

Thursday, June 12:  Delaware Park, Race 7, 3:50 P.M. 6f, Dashing Beauty Stakes, Purse: $50K*

Friday, June 13:  Santa Anita Park, Race 7, 8:45 P.M. ET, Optional Claiming First-level Allowance, 1 mile, turf, 3 yr. old, Purse:  $58K

Tune in at @alldayracing on Twitter for live coverage!

*changed from different race on 6/12 due to track conditions