Empire New York Showcase Day, Race 7-11, including Late Pick 4

First part of card was paced by Kharafa, a legitimate contender, scoring at 6-1, along with a very chalky, but value daily double to start the card. In the first two races, 1:4 and 3:5 returned $2.50 for a $1 (3:2). This was great value. Let me explain — if you believe the public is a good handicapper (and I do) and convert the odds to percentages, a 1:4 shot should have an 80% chance of winning and a 3:5 horse has a 62.5% chance of winning. The probability of both occurring was 50% (multiply the independent probabilities), which suggested a return around even money. But the return was greater than this. In fact, it was a 10% overlay simply by trusting the public, but pouncing on them when they are inconsistent with themselves. I love the thrill of longshots, but that’s tough to pass up. I also should have trusted the public on the always-consistent La Verdad.

Here’s the remainder of day at Belmont.

Race 7: Princess Violet (#5, 5-2) has been running well against open company. Great connections. Single for me, every bet, every pool.

Race 8: I’m against Saratoga Snacks (#2, 2-1) here, who hasn’t been the same horse since joining the Mott barn this year. I’ll try to beat him with both Sioux (#8, 5-2) and So Lonesome (#6, 5-1), who were both lights out on the dirt last out.

Race 9: It’s all Discreet Marq (#10, 8-5) taking on this group of state-breds. Yes, they can always lose, but she seems all the part of legitimate. Speed, class, you name it. Another single.

Race 10: I written about West Hills Giant (#2, #12-1) many times over the summer, and he returns here. I’m not going to miss his win — whenever it comes — so he’ll be on every ticket I play. That said, this is a very deep race, and if you get past the likely favorite in Noble Cornerstone (#3, 3-1) and this race gets quite tough. I will play Chapman, West Hills Giant, Noble Cornerstone, Weekend Hideaway, Moonlit Song, and Captain Serious in the P4.

Race 11: Runaway Posse (#3, 4-1) ran well first time on turf last out. At cutback in distance might be helpful, and he could get up in the final yards. Lisa Lewis can get the right first time in her barn, so Manoffire (#5, 6-1) is a contender. I’ll throw in Spider Roll (#11, 2-1) to be in condition after the nice race on the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. I’ll throw in Port Au Prince (#2, 20-1) off the work pattern to try to light up the toteboard in a contentious race.

Pick 4:

.50 cent 2X1X6X4 = $24 (may go wider in first leg depending on board)