The Travers Stakes

Seth Abrams

The Travers Stakes is a 10 furlong race for 3YOs on the dirt from Saratoga. It is the most prestigious non-Triple Crown race exclusively for 3YO’s; some may argue that it is more prestigious than the Preakness. It can be a landmark race for great horses. It is a GI and the key point on the summer calendar for 3YO.

[Horses are in order from most likely to least likely]

In this year’s edition, The 2-1 M/L favorite is Good Magic, the winner of the Haskell. No horse since Point Given — who was a great racehorse — has pulled off this feat. Point Given did it in 2001. That said, he’s the fastest horse in the race and is remarkably consistent. He was the Kentucky Derby runner-up, finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind Justify. He’s generally considered the best 3YO in training and is trained by Chad Brown. He may be fast enough to win here, but he’ll have to up his game when the divisions merge, particularly in the Classic. A triple-digit Beyer today would go a long way toward assuaging those fears.

But there are still some other horses which I expect to challenge Good Magic, especially because of the Haskell-Travers “curse.” Gronkowski shocked nearly everyone by running a close 2nd to Justify in the Belmont. Unkown whether he’d like traditional dirt going into the race, he turned out to be a more than capable dirt horse — running a 99 Beyer speed figure. He’s had even more time with Chad Brown since then. He certainly could find the winner’s circle. Todd Pletcher’s Vino Rosso looms a threat. He ran a 97 BSF in the Belmont (and Hofburg came back and ran well in the Curlin.) He ran a useful Jim Dandy. His only try at the distance was in the Derby, where he finished 9th, 10 1/2 lengths back. But he’s run 1 1/2 well, so we know the 9 furlongs are within his wheelhouse. On his best day, he could win this. Will we get the really good version of Vino Rosso or better?

Tenfold hasn’t run fast enough to win this race, even with his win in the Jim Dandy. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he broke through and got the Graded Stakes win. Tenfold has an impressive resume, even if he’s lost the biggest races in the Preakness and the Belmont. After clearing his first-level allowance, he has run exclusively in Graded Stakes. He didn’t move forward for the Arkansas Derby — granted it was in his 3rd start — and the question is whether he’ll move forward today. If you like him — and there are lots of reasons to — make sure you are getting paid for the risk.

Wonder Gadot makes a great story. She’s the first filly to start in the Travers since Davona Dale in 1979 and seeking the first win by a filly since Lady Rotha in 1915. She is trained by Mark Casse. Unfortunately, she’s probably not fast enough to win here and she’s been facing restricted company (Canadian-breds) in her most impressive triumphs. She can win if she possesses the ability to rise to the occasion against males, much like Beholder running a lifetime high in the Pacific Classic or several of Rachel Alexandra’s races. If she wins, expect the chants of “How good is Monomoy Girl?” to be loud.

Catholic Boy is another with a chance. His key is being as good on dirt and he is on turf. That’s hard to argue for when he’s 4 for 5 on the surface (the only loss is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf) and his highest BSF’s (by far) are recently going long on the turf. He is trained by Jonathan Thomas. It’s hard to know what to make of Mendelssohn. He ran lights out in the UAE Derby, terrible in the Kentucky Derby, and okay, but not great, in the Dwyer. He is trained by Aiden O’Brien, who does much better on turf than dirt in America. It’s possible that Mendelssohn rounds back into form and dominates the field from the front. King Zachary — trained by Dale Romans — gets consideration because of his Matt Winn score. However, the Matt Winn was nowhere as deep as this race, and his failure to back it up in the Indiana Derby raises concerns.

Bravazo is proving to be a good second place horse. Granted he’s facing the best competition, he has a second in the Haskell and a second in the Preakness. His non-maidens wins are by a neck and a nose. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, he’d need to be on his best. Trigger Warning has been hitting the board throughout the midwest, and earned a 94 for his 2nd place in Indiana. He’ll be a pace factor for sure, but unlikely to be there at the end. He’s trained by Mike Rone. Meistermind — another Asmussen trainee — makes the jump from a fifth place in the 1st level allowance to a GI. He may have talent, but this is above-his-head right now.

The Los Alamitos Derby

Seth Abrams

A small but intriguing field goes forward in the GIII Los Alamitos Derby later this afternoon. One of the highlights of the short summer meet, it features 5 3YO’s going 9 furlongs for a purse of $150K. Horses that run well could find themselves in any level of 3YO races left this summer, such as the Pennsylvania Derby or even the Travers, or even the Pacific Classic against older at Del Mar with a lights-out performance.

The race begins with Ax Man, who was last seen getting destroyed by Indiana Derby (later today as well) favorite King Zachary in the Matt Winn. He was 1/2 in that race — he’s been the favorite in all his starts and odds-on-in every one but his debut. He’s trained by Bob Baffert. He’s put up two sub-par performances in his career — in the aforementioned Matt Winn and in the 7f San Vincente where he was run of his feet by Kanthaka. It’s possible he didn’t like sprinting and it’s also possible he didn’t care for the Churchill Downs surface. But we have to wonder if he just didn’t feel like putting his best effort forward on either of those days. His other three performances were dominant wins by open lengths. He has three solid works since the Matt Winn. He’ll likely be the favorite again today — how low you’re willing to go on an unreliable, but fast, horse is the question.

Blended Citizen returns from a disappointing Belmont Stakes performance for Doug O’Neil. He previously won the Peter Pan over Core Beliefs and showed the form that earned him a 4th place finish in the Bluegrass. He’s the most experienced runner in the field with 11 lifetime starts and was on an upward trajectory before running into Justify and 12 furlongs. He’s not as fast as Ax Man at Ax Man’s best — no one in the field is — but stands a decent chance to run down the leaders on the long Los Alamitos stretch. I’d be willing to draw a line through the Belmont Stakes performance. Kyle Frey–who has been aboard all year–keeps the mount.

Draft Pick took a while to break his maiden, but when he returned in May from a short break, he did it emphatically. He immediately turned around the next month and took the GIII Affirmed Stakes earning a career-best 92 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. He looks to continue that hot streak today and go for three wins in a row. Trained by Peter Eurton, he is the only runner with experience at Los Al, running in two maiden races here, with 2 third place finishes. He does not seem to have a dislike for the surface — a plus, as everyone else faces a question in this regard. Slight improvement, or a subpar effort from Ax Man, puts him on top.

Once on Whiskey qualifies as the “other Baffert.” He hasn’t run particularly fast and nothing about his workouts are notable. He was last seen finishing 3rd on Derby Day in a 1st level allowance for three year olds. He’s yet to stretchout — something that could favor this son of Bodemeister out of a Mineshaft Dam. He’s a bit of an X-factor, piloted by Flavien Plat, and could make some noise at the end. He won’t be a huge price because of his trainer, but he could be a reasonable mid-to-longshot to include in the late P4.

King Cause is the other “O’Neil.” He’s yet to show the speed necessary to win here today and was beaten by Draft Pick by 10 lengths in the Affirmed. He has some early speed which could challenge Ax Man and set things up for Blended Citizen to make a charge at the end.

Analysis: Ax Man has proven a bit unreliable, and while he can win, I prefer the improving Draft Pick to lay slightly off the speed and make a winning move at the top of the long Los Al Stretch. He’s on a roll and I expect it to continue. Once on Whiskey is intriguing on the stretchout and is playable at 8-1 or better.

Looking back at Shared Belief’s Pacific Classic (G1)

Seth Abrams

I was not a huge fan of Shared Belief going into the Pacific Classic. I really liked him last fall at the now-closed Hollywood Park, and he had been routinely excellent in his limited appearances. But, overall, I remained unconvinced by the level of competition that he was beating and generally am against 3YO’s facing older for the first time. When handicapping that race, I was trying to find reasons to beat Shared Belief, who would be facing older for the first time. But the field was uninspiring — Game on Dude was well past his prime (and since retired.) Toast of New York was the only other horse who liked the surface, but he himself was coming off a significant layoff, only having raced once since the Belmont Derby. He also was a 3YO facing older horses for the first time. Of the remaining horses, Majestic Harbor was an open question — bringing in top dirt form — but ultimately struggled.

So, it was not a terrible surprise when Shared Belief romped home in visually-impressive fashion as the favorite. His raw time of 2:00.28 was very nice as well.

Most of the publicly-available speed figures that came out were great. The Beyer was 115 and the Timeform was 116. But, the Bris speed figure was originally reported as a 95. This opened up some question as to whether the race was indeed as impressive as it looked, especially given the weak cast. There are criticisms of Bris figures (there are criticisms of all figures, though), but I was wondered whether there might be something in their approach that the others had missed. However, a few days after the race, this tweet came from Brisnet:

The controversial speed figure was being revised upward to 111. From what I remember from reading the Beyer trilogy, revising figures is an accepted part of the long-term speed figure process, although the 16 point shift on the Bris scale seems quite large. As a result, the Bris figure — which was among the only reasons to knock Shared Belief — was now in line with the other figures. This is reflected on the past performances for Shared Belief as well. Thus, it seems, at least among the top publicly available figures (and the Sheets reportedly have a very good rating for Shared Belief as well), there’s no controversy left:

Shared Belief ran a monster race in the Pacific Classic. He deserves his place at the top of the division.

Check back later in the week for a preview of racing from Santa Anita and for our opinion on whether there’s any value to be made in betting Shared Belief. Plus, tons of coverage of Belmont Super Saturday.

This Weekend at All Day Racing

Seth Abrams

All rested up and ready after an amazingly fun weekend last week, highlighted by V-E Day in the Travers and Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic. And don’t forget The Big Beast — excited to watch him develop. I also wrote a an article on alternative late-season options for 3-year-olds, which appeared on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary. The Super Derby is next week and the highly-anticipated Pennsylvania Derby, with California Chrome, is September 20. As Saratoga ends Monday and Del Mar ends Wednesday, let’s send the summer out right!

Coming up on All Day Racing:

Billy Blake’s Saratoga Saturday Late Pick 4. Special thanks to Billy for his analysis throughout the entire Saratoga meet!
Jason Landman vs. Del Mar’s Labor Day Weekend: Three days of racing equals lots of good opportunities. How will Jason attack the card to maximize potential value?
I’ll write about the Hopeful and the Saranac for Monday’s Saratoga card.
And, of course, the upcoming debut of All Day Racing Premium!