The Haskell Invitational

Seth Abrams

It’s the end of the weekend and we have a special Sunday edition of the blog. This week is the 9f Haskell Invitational, a GI $1 million dollar race from Monmouth Park in New Jersey. It’s the highlight of a weekend with 3 3YO races. At Saratoga, we’ve already seen Hofburg capture the Curlin on Friday and Tenfold took the Jim Dandy on Saturday.

This race begins with Good Magic, who is among the leaders in this now-open division (with the retirement of Justify.) His resume includes wins in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and in the G2 Blue Grass. He had a strong second in the Kentucky Derby, finishing only 2 1/2 lengths behind Justify. He finished a close 4th in the Preakness. He’s run a 100 Beyer — in last’s year Juvenile but hasn’t reached a new level this year. He may be good enough to win today without improvement, but he won’t be at the top of the division unless he moves forward.

Bravazo was part of that close finish in the Preakness. He’s certainly moved forward this year — putting up 4 of 5 90+ Beyers in his last 5 starts. He tops out with a 96 in the Preakness. It’s tough to read how much he moved forward in the slop, I don’t quite think he’s as good as he was in the Preakness and is probably too slow to win here today. Core Beliefs and Lone Sailor both exit the Ohio Derby. Core Beliefs, who got up by a nose, has been steadily on the improve all season. He ran a 94 Beyer in the Ohio Derby. Lone Sailor, who also earned a 94 Beyer in the Ohio Derby, ran well in the Preakness as well. He is 1 for 11 — running in top races, but still not finding the winner’s circle since his second start.

Golden Brown seems better on the turf and he’s too slow. Navy Commander won a local prep in the Long Branch but his 84 Beyer is too slow for this race. Roaming Union, who finished second in a different local prep, could be on the improve with the third start in the cycle. He hasn’t found the winner’s circle enough to be a serious contender.

Analysis: I like trying to beat Good Magic, who will play a role in the race. But at 6-5 (or worse), I think there’s risk with this horse if another one improves. Core Beliefs has been improving and can continue to improve. He’s only made 6 starts and it took him to his 3rd start to figure it out. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has another gear and shows it at Monmouth.

The Super Derby (Grade II)

Seth Abrams

The most interesting thing about the Super Derby is its history. Started in 1980, it’s burst on to the scene, quickly becoming a Grade I and a very important race in the 3-YO season. But now, 34 years later,it no longer holds this position, which is now occupied by the $1M Pennsylvania Derby in 2 weeks. It’s still an important 9 furlong race for second-level 3-YO’s and offers a very decent purse of $400,000. Instead of a prep for the Breeders’ Cup (think Tiznow in 2000, pictured above), it’s now a race in line with other mid-level track derbies, such as the Iowa Derby, Ohio Derby, West Virginia Derby, Indiana Derby, and Oklahoma Derby. It’s unsurprising then that the top contenders for today’s race come out of the Ohio Derby and West Virginia Derby.

Despite a large field (largest in a decade for the Super Derby), on paper, it appears to be a formful race with 3 strong contenders standing above the rest, and a new shooter who might develop into something. To begin, Vicar’s in Trouble makes his third start since the Derby, after slightly disappointing efforts in Iowa and West Virginia. He’s a state-bred, so there’s more than a little big of pride involved in capturing the home state race. His main competition from the West Virginia — Candy Boy and Tapiture — isn’t here, and he very well might outclass this field. The other two main contenders — East Hall and Jessica’s Star — finished first and second in the Ohio Derby and this is a very logical next step. East Hall is a bit of a mystery — interested to see how he runs today. I’ll stay away from local horses in a race like this, and the only other horse worth mentioning is Sagamore Farm’s Victory Not Defeat, who is stepping up in class from sharp performances at Gulfstream. Haven’t seen enough, especially with stretch-out to support a bet, but I’m certainly quite interested in watching him today.

What I’m thinking of playing:

This is probably just a “watch” race to get a better read on the improvement of these horses. Should be useful moving forward in the division. I’ll play Vicar’s in Trouble up top if I get 3-1 or better, but I don’t expect it.

Good luck!

Read Iowa Derby Preview

Read West Virginia Derby Preview

The Ohio Derby

Seth Abrams

I’ll kick off the late-season coverage of three-year olds with a trip to the center of the sports world — and my hometown — of Cleveland, Ohio. On Saturday, Thistledown Racino hosts the Ohio Derby, with a very nice field of twelve and a purse of $300,000. One familiar name from the Triple Crown trail, which, while fun for fans, can help to create value elsewhere. Run now at eight and a half furlongs, it was contested for most of its history at 9 furlongs. Some nice historical winners of the race:

1924: Black Gold
1979: Smarten
1986: Broad Brush
1995: Petitionville
1996: Skip Away
2004: Brass Hat
2006: Deputy Glitters
2011: Caleb’s Posse

This year’s edition features some very well-bred horses. The race begins with Almost Famous (#4, 7-2) who comes off a decent effort on a hot pace in the Matt Winn Stakes. Popular rider Calvin Borel gets the mount; this horse will certainly get the public’s attention. If he runs anywhere near the race he did off the layoff, he’ll win by open lengths. But that race on May 24 at Churchill Downs stands as an aberration on the PP. Other than that day, Almost Famous has been a good, but not great horse. A good place for visual handicapping, especially if you have notes of his appearance at earlier races. Remember it’s not so much how they look, but how they look compared to their previous appearances. Nevertheless, be wary of a low price on him, especially with this deep field. Jessica’s Star (#9, 4-1) ships in after an impressive performance in the Iowa Derby. He’s done very little wrong in his career, with game efforts on debut and even in the lone turf try. Certainly figures here, and may be overlooked with some of the other names. East Hall (#12, 5-1) arrives after being a warrior through the winter in Florida. He was always a notch below the best and may still be a notch below these. Harry’s Holiday (#5, 8-1) returns to the races for the first time since finishing 16th in the Kentucky Derby. Here’s what I said about him on that day:

Maybe the easiest elimination of all the horses. He does have a win over the track — although it was in a lower-level maiden event. He qualified with a second-place finish in the Spiral, which isn’t that impressive of a prep race, and he’s hasn’t run close to fast enough to win this race. There’s a line between a good longshot (who has flaws but can win) and a bad longshot (who just isn’t fast enough).

I certainly didn’t like him that day, and I don’t feel much better about him today. Seems a notch below these, and he’ll be overbet.

Bump Start (#3, 12/1) under the talented Deshawn Parker makes a step up in class. He’s routed before, but this will be his first route of the three-year old season. Certainly worth a long look by anyone wanting a big price. Cleburne (#7, 12/1) comes in for Dale Romans and Donegal Racing. He’s lightly raced and would need a huge step forward to win here, but this horse has potential to be a good one. Still, I’d sit out one — let him show you on the track first. Mushu (#10, 20-1), Larcenyinmyheart (#1, 15-1) and Avgolemono (#8, 20-1) all carry local hopes. Larcenyinmyheart comes in on a four-race winning streak since the claim and ship to Thistledown. He’d be a great story, but seems unlikely. Mushu could like the stretchout, but would need improvement. Brothersofthetime (#2, 8-1), Saa Mi (#11, 15-1) and Russelin (#6, 10-1) have chances, especially if no one moves forward, but rate outsider chances at best.

Key questions:

1. Does Almost Famous repeat that lifetime best performance? If so, the race is over.

2. Does Cleburne step up off the layoff? He won the Iroquois last year and certainly has reason to be a good one. Has potential to be the best of the bunch. Can he be his best today?

3. Will a local horse hit the board? Mushu is interesting on the stretch-out . Lately, Larcenyinmyheart is a win machine. Could be some nice value underneath for exotics players.

4. How does Bump Start handle the stretch-out? Last race was very nice, but he’d need to move forward yet again. Still could offer some value, especially at high odds.

What I’m thinking of playing:

I expect Almost Famous to take a bunch of money as the post time favorite. I’ll let him beat me, especially at a low price. Jessica’s Star is interesting under David Mello. He always makes a good showing, and might sit right off a hot pace. Anything over 5-1 is nice, which is possible if Harry’s Holiday and Cleburne take money. Bump Start rates a look, but it’s a huge step up in class. Certainly worth looking at above 20-1.

Coverage of the Ohio Derby on @alldayracing on twitter!

Good luck!