Belmont Park, Race 5, Coverage on Twitter at 3:10 P.M. ET

Race of the Day, June 19

Belmont Park, 5th race, 1 Mile, Inner Turf, Maiden Claiming $40K, 3 and up, Purse $41K.

Today, it’s back to N.Y. for the first time since the Belmont Stakes. Great racing there everyday.  Plus, it’s another installment in Maiden Claiming week!  I love Maiden Claimers. Tons of risky favorites and lots of horses that need miracles to win.  It can set up for great value in mid-odds. 

Here’s what you need to know about the fifth from Belmont:

5 facts:

  1. Corinthian Summer (#8, 2-1) continues his drop through the maiden claiming ranks.  Did make up some nice ground in the middle of last race, but should be overbet because of connections.
  2. Azorian (#1A, 10-1) stays in the race as, perhaps, the most important pace factor.  Easy fractions could see an improvement to the Winner’s Circle, but demand at least 6-1.
  3. Dividend (#7, 3-1) adds blinkers in a curious move for a horse that made up almost 21 lengths in a previous start.  Ian Wilkes struggles with this angle, but Dividend’s last workout — presumably with blinkers — has to be encouraging.  I wouldn’t go much past 6-1 with him.
  4. Plated (#6, 5-1)  cuts back from 2 1/8 miles in his last start.  Not something you see everyday — perhaps underneath and late.
  5. Hooping (#4, 6-1) would need more today, but certainly has a shot.  His experience in lower-leveling claiming at Gulfstream Park ($16K) will likely keep the price relatively fair.

The Key Questions:

  • How heavy a favorite is Corinthian Summer?  The lower the price, the better for value elsewhere.  Public overbet!
  • Does Azorian improve with an easier pace?  It’s a tough angle to nail, but one that can pay well in the right circumstances with value odds.
  • How does Dividend react to the blinkers?   Wilkes struggles with this angle.
  • Does Hooping do enough to win?  Sometimes the winner doesn’t have angles, but just enough speed when others don’t fire.

What I’m thinking of playing:

I’ll likely take a stands against both Corinthian Summer and Dividend. Azorian should be be the play, but only at  6-1 or better. Good luck!

Tune in at @alldayracing on Twitter for coverage starting at 3:10 P.M. ET. See you then!

Postscript: Belmont 4

Peaceful Talk dominated the field, loving the turf, and pulling away in the stretch impressively!

On paper, signs suggested Peaceful Talk wouldn’t like the turf. Both his trainer and his sire struggle the first time on turf.  It appeared to be a sharpener for a dirt try later on (and very well may have been intended that way.)  He did get some support at the windows and was bet down from the morning line of 15-1 down to 9-1.

Sometimes weird, unanticipated things happen, like Peaceful Talk loving the turf. That’s horse racing!

Corinthian Summer ran well, but got left in the stretch as Peaceful Talk kicked away and eventually finished third. I’ll be interested to see how the speed comes back from this race and whether he improved or not. Ahead of the Curve had a bad start, but wasn’t good enough today anyway.  Romans Paradise threatened on the turn, but wasn’t a factor at the end. In Speight Ofitall didn’t figure.

 

Belmont Park, Race 4, May 23 @ 2:40 ET

Race of the Day, May 23

Belmont Park, Turf, Maiden Claiming $65K, 1 1/16 miles, Purse: $50K

FOUR QUESTIONS

Four questions for the 4th at Belmont:

1. Will In Speight Ofital  like the turf?  He has some nice back performances on the turf, including two second place finishers.  It was a long time ago, but the prowess could very well be there and puts him in the mix.

2. Will Romans Paradise improve again?  He’s coming off the best race of her career, and on paper, looks poised to improve again with a class drop.  If he does, she may be very hard to beat.

3. Will Ahead of the Curve appreciate the class relief and will it be enough? His trainer excels with this top of drop.  If he’s sharp at this level, he still might be slower than either Corinthian Summer or Romans Paradise.  So, he’ll need to perform well and also have the other not perform well.

4. Does Corinthian Summer have an excuse for that last race?  He had trouble and was steadied in the stretch, but only lost by 1 length. Still, it was a slow race overall, and he’ll likely need to find a new turf top to win.

Tune in on twitter at 2:40 ET (11:40 PT) @alldayracing.  See you then!