Race of the Day, Belmont Park, Race 7, 1st level Allowance, 6½ Furlongs. 3 and Up.  State-bred. Purse: $62K. 

Sixty-two thousand dollars is a significant state-bred allowance purse in today’s 7th.  Note the significant scratch of Sidearm (#2, 3-1), leaving Station Chief as the lone Contessa runner.

Contenders:

• Station Chief (#3, 5/2) adds an extra half-furlong and will look for a bit easier pace to get it done on the front end.  He hasn’t run fast enough yet to win here.
• Say Mr. Sandman (#5, 7/2), an Aqueduct warrior, has had success closing on the biased inner track. Typically, this bodes well at Belmont, and, for him, this has proven to be true — he’s 1-1-0 in 3 starts at Belmont.  He very well may be in career form, and looms a good threat today.
• Horatio (#7, 5/1) offers value potential.  His career best peformance could be attributed to the muddy track on June 5th, or it could be a result of the new barn. My guess is the public will think it’s the mud and undervalue this horse.
• Brass Pear (#1, 15-1) will keep Station Chief company on the front end, and may open up the race for Say Mr. Sandman and Horatio.

What I’m thinking of playing:

Station Chief has yet to run fast enough to win at this level.  Expecting improvement at low odds is a difficult path to follow.  I’ll likely play against him in the Pick 3 and Pick 4 with Horatio and Say Mr. Sandman.  I like either of them over 3-1, but not both.  That will likely be Horatio when the odds settle.

See you at 5:50 p.m. ET on Twitter!