I watched the 2006 Pimlico special from an unfurnished living room in South Burlington, VT. We saw the U.S. debut of Invasor, who would later go on to win the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic, 2007 Dubai World Cup, and be named Horse of the Year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCydlbYkGM0
I’m not sure there’s a horse of Invasor’s stature in here, but there are some nice looking classic division colts. The race begins with Revolutionary (#6, 5-2) who was 3rd last year in the Derby behind Orb. Since then, he looked dull in the Donn but raced well in the Oaklawn Handicap, finishing behind Will Take Charge. Revolutionary is fast enough to win here and he should like this distance. But he has a knack for inconsistency and, while he’s the best on paper, he doesn’t dominate the field.
Moreno (#3, 7-2) wants the lead, but there will be competition for it — I’d be surprised if he didn’t fold off the board in the final 100 yards. Golden Lad (#4, 6-1) and Valid (#1, 10-1) also have designs on it. Valid is taking a step up in class, but ran the best race of his life routing in the mud at Gulfstream. I expect his price to drop. Cat Burglar (#2, 4-1) has earned this shot. He’s raced well in Southern California, but he’d need to improve to find the winner’s circle here. Carve (#5, 5-1) is trained by Brad Cox, who has been on fire lately. The horse is making his third start of the layoff and has a versatile off-the-pace style. Prayer for Relief (#8, 12-1) is getting a bit long in the tooth. He’d need to find past speed for it to happen. It’s not unheard of for that to happen with the recent switch to Dale Romans. He could be a factor if others don’t move forward.
Questions:
- Will Revolutionary bring his A-game today? If so, he’s hard to beat.
- Will Valid be crazy good on the mud again?
- Is Carve good enough to win a graded stakes? He tried earlier in the Asmussen barn, but he seems like an improved horse under Cox.
Analysis
Revolutionary will be the likely favorite, but he is unreliable. He certainly is a strong contender, but the price should lead you elsewhere. Carve has always had potential and has been realizing it lately. With a decent price around 5-1, he could be a very nice pick. Valid deserves some consideration, especially if he floats over 10-1.