We’ll roll into California with a 3YO turf stakes race in the Twilight Derby (GII). It is 9 furlongs and on the firm turf. With 2 scratches today, 9 horses are scheduled to enter the starting gate at 3:49 Pacific Time. Here’s a rundown:
Cowboy Culture is a horse that likes to win — he’s 5 of 7 in his career (all on the turf). He’s won at 4 different midwest tracks.Trained by Brad Cox, who can ship well. He’s never run at 9 furlongs. His best performances have been on wet ground. Certainly a contender, he’ll need to improve to find the winner’s circle.
Big Score ran lights out last time, finishing a close second in the Del Mar Derby at this 9 furlong distance. He’s been on the stakes circuit his entire career, winning a G3 and finishing second in a G2. Fast enough with some classy performances. Strong Contender
Bowies Hero was the winner of the Oceanside — an important opening day stake race at Del Mar. And he also won the Singletary. Both of these races had an extremely fast pace, so that’s his best hope. I don’t foresee a super fast pace — 2 speed horses scratched out. But you never know — he may be worth an inclusion on deeper P4’s, just in case the jockeys go crazy.
Winner of a G3 at Laurel Park, Just Howard is riding a 4 race winning streak. Once breaking his maiden, he won two restricted and a G3. Has an excellent trainer in Graham Motion, he faces a major bump up in class. Not impossible to see him winning, but does not seem terribly likely. The Laurel-to-Santa-Anita ship is hard.
Sharp Samurai, ridden by Gary Stevens, won the Del Mar Derby. He’s answered the challenges, with one blip losing to Bowies Hero in the Singeltary. He’s 4 of 5 since trying the turf. Super Strong contender, and quite possibly the one to beat.
Troublewithateeis over his head in this race. He’s here off maiden and allowance wins, but he’d need to improve his speed significantly since September. He would be a huge surprise.
Channel Maker ships in from Belmont. He previously had won a restricted stake in Canada after a strong showing in the Queen’s Plate. Numbers-wise, he’s the best and his decent showing in a G1 suggests form. He’ll also be cutting back, having run twice at 12 furlongs. He doesn’t have the wins of the others, only 2 for 11 lifetime. I’m looking elsewhere, primarily because of the lack of wins.
Profiteer is another shipper. A solid horse, he’ll need a form cycle up (3rd race off the layoff), into the best performance of his career. He has two allowance wins, but a GII may be too much at this point. A contender, but only one to put on deeper P4 tickets.
I always have mixed feelings about Ann Arbor Eddie because I have two degrees from the University of Michigan. It’s his first turf try after two recent graded stakes sprint tries. I’m banking he’s here to gain some condition, so I wouldn’t put him on a ticket (at least to win).
My pick is Big Score, but I’d include Sharp Samurai and Just Howard on P4 tickets.
Twilight Derby
Seth AbramsWe’ll roll into California with a 3YO turf stakes race in the Twilight Derby (GII). It is 9 furlongs and on the firm turf. With 2 scratches today, 9 horses are scheduled to enter the starting gate at 3:49 Pacific Time. Here’s a rundown:
My pick is Big Score, but I’d include Sharp Samurai and Just Howard on P4 tickets.
Good luck at the races!