Race of the Day

Presque Isle Downs, Erie, PA

7th race, 6½ Furlongs, Dirt, PA-Bred Maiden Claiming $12.5K, 3 and up, Purse: $13,000.

Five Key Facts:

• The entry of Little Drummer/Burning Point (3/1, #1-#1A) is likely to be favored dropping down slightly in class and both moving from a route to a longer sprint. Both figure, but there’s likely better value elsewhere.
• Jet Star, the sire of Money Eyed Boy (#2, 8/1) has never had a foal run on grass or artificial surface.  Look elsewhere today — no reason to expect an affinity.
• Mission Man (#3, 8/1) makes his second start for Nick Caruso and drops in class after a improved outing first time on the artificial surface last time.  I think he could be value here.
• Hay Jr. (#5, 6-1) and Textbook Blues (#6, 5-1) both move up in class while stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs.  Textbook blues rates significantly better and may very well be a factor late.
• The trainer of Double Jock Mount (#4, 4-1) is 1 for his last 104 first time starters.  Certainly not anywhere near 4-1 on this one.

Fair Odds:

• Little Drummer/Burning Point: 5-1
• Money Eyed Boy:  15-1
• Mission Man:  9/2
• Hay Jr:  10-1
• Textbook Blues:  5-1
• Double Jock Mount:  15-1

Analysis:

Mission Man and Textbook Blues both woke up in their last race after trying the artificial surface.  Both rate as well, and certainly should offer much better value than the others.

I may do a 50/50 split win bet on the two of them, assuming that each is 5-1 or better.  I also will likely explore combinations into the late double as well as the late Pick 4, which an pay well with a few upsets.

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