I hope everyone is enjoying the official kickoff to summer! It’s going to be a stunning day at Belmont Park. Here’s my quick rundown on all 10 races on the Memorial Day Card.
When I’ll approach an entire card, I’ll try to view it as one continuous race. When I play with my own money, I often try to view any particular race as meaningless, as just one iteration of a very long process. I look for three types of horses, who are key to the day.
- Likely Losing Favorites: Horses that are well-liked by the public (less than 2-1), but have some substantial flaws which increases their risk to a level much greater than return.
- Money Rangers: These are mid-level odds horses (3-1 to 8-1) that are profitable for me over time. When they are paired with a losing favorite, they are especially dangerous.
- High Variance Long Shots: These are generally horses over 10-1 that probably not going to win today. But they have a better shot than their odds indicate, but it still requires a good deal of luck to get home. These horses make money over time, but they can have very long run outs. I go after these with small unit bets.
I’m also a big fan of passing a race, if I’m not getting good value in my pick. Because of track takeout (taking out around 20% of the pools before returning to players — this goes to run the track, pay salaries, etc.), there is absolutely no guarantee that value is going to present in any race. I only suggest betting when the odds indicate a proper return for the risk.
Race 1: Seems a race between Broadway Music Gal and Platinum Bombshell, but I like the strong win by Physical Delivery last out. It’s at an easier level, and there’s the question of the mud, but if you’re getting 7/2, it’s worth it.
Race 2: Todd Pletcher has 3 of the 6 runners in here. I’d take a chance on his Penn National Invader Red Velvet, as long as she’s above 3-1.
Race 3: Another likely two horse race, but HarrytheNavigator may offer a little bit of value. I’d play him above 3-1.
Race 4: Good horses here. Mr. Speaker is probably the best, but without that last race (on polytrack, not turf), he’s the same as these others. I’ll take an unlikely flyer on Can’tHelpBelieving at 8-1 or greater catching everybody at the end.
Race 5: Wally Did It gets some class relief off the layoff. I’d play him 3-1 or better.
Race 6: It’s a competitive, but lackluster, race. I’ll go with Geno and the Jets at 5-1 or more to look sharp off the layoff and beat these.
Race 7: Kara’s Match Point should be the best here, but the price will be low. You could use her in a double, Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 as a single if you like her.
Race 8: The race should set up nicely for Jack Milton, but pace is always a dangerous game. If you can get 4-1 on him, I’d bet.
Race 9: I really like Holabird to improve second off the layoff here. Should get good odds, but I’d play him down to 3-1.
Race 10: In the finale, I’ll take Glowing Ember, and hope for a price. I think he’s fair down to 5-1. Dancteria is strong, but I think she’ll need a race.
Good luck and trust your gut!
For additional thoughts, real-time analysis and possible new (or different) bets, please follow along on twitter @alldayracing. Seeing the horses and, especially, the odds affects value and picks in important ways!