Race of the Day, May 28
Presque Isle Downs, Erie, PA
Race 4, 6:25 PM ET, 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight for PA-Breds, Purse: $35K
The small fields that plagued the early days at Presque Isle appear to be gone. Twelve horses are scheduled in today’s fourth, a maiden allowance for Pennsylvania-Breds.
The M/L favorite is Tinturn Abbey (#3, 7/2), who is coming off a 307-day layoff and starting for hot Matthew Kritz barn for the first time. He certainly figures on speed, although he’s had plenty of chances. Tinturn Abbey was in career form prior to the layoff. He’d need to resume that work to win – something that seems questionable given the long layoff. Savings N Loan (#5, 4-1) ran a very productive race last time out and picks up top local rider Scott Spieth. He rates well on condition, but he’ll need to improve upon that last effort and find more stamina to reach the winner’s circle. Tampa Bay Blue (#11, 9/2) ran an nice even race last time out. He’s lightly raced and may have more than he’s shown. Deverdoeu (#6, 15-1) had a better debut than anticipated. He’d need to improve, but is still within range of the winner’s circle, and could be especially nice at a price. Delaware Devil (#8, 15-1) makes his debut on an artificial surface. He has a nice workout over the track, but would need to significantly improve here. O Wow (#1, 5/1) chased the pace and faltered last time out. He looks to be too slow on his best day to win here. Woke Up Runnin’ (#4, 6-1) is off form.
The remaining contenders are all first time starters. Papamac (#2, 8-1) and Rage and Ruin (#10, 8-1) start for Joseph Martin, but neither looks terribly impressive on paper. No Marbles (#9, 8-1) is a tad more impressive, but starts for a trainer that rarely has them ready to win at first asking.
- Is Tinturn Abbey ready to run today? If he is, then he’s your likely winner.
- Do Deverdoeu or Tampa Bay Blue improve? These two are lightly-raced and showed positive signs in their last races.
- Are any of the first-time starters ready to run? The toteboard may provide us some clues near race time.
- Does Delaware Devil take to the artificial surface? Even if he does, he’d need to really improve
Tinturn Abbey and Saving N Loan have a bit too much risk to support at a low price. I expect Tinturn Abbey to need a race off the long layoff and for Saving N Loan to fade in the stretch. Both Tampa Bay Blue and Deverdoeu are better bets and could offer a nice price come race time, even to bet them both. This is the final leg of the early Pick 4, which begins in race 1, and the 1st leg of a Pick 3, and could very well yield a nice price.
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